Dunning Singularity Horizon

The “Dunning-Kruger” effect describes incompetence that fails to recognize itself and promotes ignorant confidence. David Dunning and Justin Kruger from Cornell University described this hypothesis in 1999 and then tested and confirmed it.

“One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision”

– Bertrand Russell

Incompetence is often the result of a point of view or knowledge input filter that restricts access to some data that is key to a situation or problem. If you can’t see something, it may be difficult to know that you can’t see it. If you’ve never been beyond your visual horizon, there may be some surprises there, because your idea of what is likely to be there is based on what you know and what you have experienced, not what you can’t imagine.

This is also a description of the singularity horizon, where things will be changing so fast that we won’t have the ability to predict what is coming next and may not even be able to recognize what it is when it appears. Those with a more advanced limit of competence in singularity related areas will be better able to adjust to the singularity and comprehend what is happening. Those with a more limiting incompetence in the same areas will struggle with understanding it and will be prone to creating wild rationalization theories to deal with the incomprehensible.

SEE ALSO:
Knowns and Unknowns
Ethical Cascade Singularity
Defining the Singularity
Singularity Horizon
Singularity Theory May Explain Fermi Paradox

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